Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Nov 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Nov 24 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 975 (N02W15) was numbered today. This Beta-type sunspot group has displayed significant plage fluctuations throughout the region center.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active conditions. The solar wind data observed at the ACE spacecraft indicates the continued influence of the coronal hole high speed stream. The solar wind speed has increased to around 645 km/s with Bz fluctuations between +/- 5 nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions on 25-26 November. Predominantly quiet levels are expected on 27 November as the coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 Nov 071
• Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 24 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 008/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 010/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 010/015-008/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/10
• Minor storm 05/05/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/10
• Minor storm 10/10/01
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01