Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 24 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible disk is currently spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A favorably positioned recurrent high speed coronal hole stream was responsible for the elevated conditions.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. A return to predominantly quiet levels is expected on 27 November as the coronal hole rotates out of geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 Nov 077
• Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 24 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 008/018
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 012/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 012/015-010/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/25/20
• Minor storm 15/10/05
• Major-severe storm 10/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/30/25
• Minor storm 20/10/10
• Major-severe storm 10/05/01