Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Nov 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Nov 24 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. New Regions 706 (S07E69)
and 707 (S15E68) were numbered today. These regions are likely the
return of old Region 698 (S09,L=062) and 693 (S17,L=074)
respectively.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible with the emergence of the two
new regions on the southeast solar disk.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled conditions. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high
levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions are possible due to the effects of a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov

• Class M 20/20/20
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 Nov 107
• Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 120/125/130
• 90 Day Mean 24 Nov 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 004/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 005/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 008/012-010/015-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/20/15
• Minor storm 05/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/25/20
• Minor storm 10/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05