Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Nov 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
November 24, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Nov 24 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several low C-class flares were
observed throughout the period. Region 501 (N03W72) is undergoing
considerable decay as it approaches the west limb, but is still
producing isolated C-class flares. Region 508 (S17E08) was
responsible for most of the low C-class activity. No significant
change was noted in this moderately complex region over the last 24
hours. It maintains a beta-gamma configuration in approximately 450
millionths of white light areal coverage. Region 507 (N09W03) is the
largest and most complex region on the visible disk, but was rather
quiet this period. A weak delta configuration is apparent in this
spot group with over 700 millionths of areal coverage. New Regions
509 (S10E56) and 510 (S22E62) were numbered today. Region 509
produced a C2/Sf flare at 24/1854Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. An isolated M-class flare is possible,
primarily from Regions 501, 507, and 508.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods in the higher latitudes. A well positioned coronal hole is
producing solar wind speeds near 600 km/s, creating a weak
disturbance in the geomagnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV
electrons at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to active levels through 26 November.
Isolated minor storm levels are also expected, but will be confined
mostly to higher latitudes. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected
on 27 November as the current disturbance subsides.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov

  • Class M 40/40/30
  • Class X 10/10/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 24 Nov 177
  • Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 175/170/160
  • 90 Day Mean 24 Nov 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 013/021
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 015/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 015/020-015/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/30
  • Minor storm 20/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 50/50/40
  • Minor storm 25/25/20
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.