Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 May 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A few nominal C-class flares
were observed during the period. New Region 1490 (S12E58) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the period (25-27 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet, with the exception of an
isolated unsettled period overnight between 24/03-06Z. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on day 1 (25 May). A weak enhancement in
activity of unsettled to active conditions is possible on day 2 (26
May) as the result of CME effects from the event on 22 May.
Conditions are expected to return to mostly quiet for day 3 (27
May).
III. Event Probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M 10/10/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 May 116
Predicted 25 May-27 May 115/110/110
90 Day Mean 24 May 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 013/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 006/005-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/15/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 10/20/10