Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 May 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The STEREO and SOHO/LASCO
imagery observed a CME today originating from the filament channel
located around N15W32. This event was first observed on the C2
imagery around 24/1406Z. The latest analysis indicated its
signature as a partial halo CME. A long duration B1 flare at
24/1446Z was also associated with this event. Region 1072 (S15W22)
has decreased slightly in white light areal coverage and sunspot
count and is a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 1072.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the first two days (25-26
May). Unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor storm
levels, are expected on day three (27 May). This increase is
expected due to the CME activity of 23-24 May.
III. Event Probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 May 073
Predicted 25 May-27 May 076/076/078
90 Day Mean 24 May 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 000/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 001/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 005/005-005/005-015/017
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/30
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/35
Minor storm 01/01/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05