Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 May 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 May 24 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. Solar wind velocities at ACE ranged between 450-580 km/s today. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for isolated active conditions at high latitudes, for the next three days (25-27 May).

III. Event Probabilities 25 May-27 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 May 069
• Predicted 25 May-27 May 068/068/068
• 90 Day Mean 24 May 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 007/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 007/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 008/010-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01