Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 May 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 May 24 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar Activity was very low. Region 884 (S12W14) produced today’s only event, a B1 x-ray event at 1443Z. Region 886 (N07E31) showed slow growth during the past 24 hours but was quiet and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly very low, but there is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for 25 May due to recurrence. Quiet conditions are expected for 26-27 May.

III. Event Probabilities 25 May-27 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 May 084
• Predicted 25 May-27 May 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 24 May 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 004/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 005/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 008/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/10/10
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/15/15
• Minor storm 15/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01