Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 May 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
May 24, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 May 24 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 767
(S08E40) is in a slow growth phase and produced occasional B-class
flares. Region 766 (N13E37), the only other sunspot group on the
visible disk, was stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare
from Region 767.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed declined to below
400 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet with occasional unsettled periods on 25 and 26
May. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to
rotate into geoeffective position on 27 May, and produce occasional
active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 25 May-27 May

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 24 May 085
  • Predicted 25 May-27 May 085/085/085
  • 90 Day Mean 24 May 091

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 005/007
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 005/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 005/008-005/010-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/20/30
  • Minor storm 05/05/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/40
  • Minor storm 10/10/20
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/10

SpaceRef staff editor.