Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 March 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Mar 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1176 (S16E44)
produced an isolated impulsive M1/1F flare at 24/1207Z associated
with minor radio emission and a partial-halo CME (estimated
plane-of-sky velocity 421 km/s). It also produced occasional B- and
C-class flares during the period. Region 1176 showed a minor
increase in intermediate spots and was classified as an Eki with a
moderately complex beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Regions
1178 (S13E68) and 1179 (N09W32) were numbered. Both were small and
magnetically simple sunspot groups.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
during the period (25 – 27 March) with a chance for
another M-class flare from Region 1176.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. ACE solar wind data
indicated Earth remained under the influence of a coronal hole
high-speed wind stream. Solar wind velocities were variable in the
419 to 500 km/s range. IMF Bz was northward during most of the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (25 – 27
March).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Mar 108
Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 110/115/120
90 Day Mean 24 Mar 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01