Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Mar 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Mar 24 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 864 (S05W61) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated active periods on 25 and 26 March. On 27 March, mostly quiet conditions are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar

• Class M 05/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 Mar 076
• Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 24 Mar 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 002/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 005/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 008/012-005/010-005/007

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 15/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01