Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Mar 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Mar 24 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 25 March. On 26
March, isolated active conditions are expected as a recurrent high
speed stream moves into geoeffective position. On 27 March,
unsettled to active conditions are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 Mar 087
• Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 090/090/085
• 90 Day Mean 24 Mar 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 008/010-010/012-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/30
• Minor storm 10/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/10