Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Mar 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
March 24, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Mar 24 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class events
occurred, as the general level of activity increased. Region 577
(S01W14) generated a C5/Sf flare at 1426 UTC. More recently, an
impulsive C7 limb flare appeared to have its origin from N15E90.
This soon to appear region is showing a hot corona in x-rays
and is also visible in H-alpha. Two new regions were assigned:
Region 580 (S07W07) and Region 581 (S03E81).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
low. Isolated C-class flares are likely, with a slight chance of an
M-class flare. Watch the northeast limb for the imminent arrival of
a new bright region.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to mildly unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit attained high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through 27 March.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar

  • Class M 20/20/20
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 24 Mar 120
  • Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 120/120/115
  • 90 Day Mean 24 Mar 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 005/008
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 005/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 005/010-005/010-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/25
  • Minor storm 05/05/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.