Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Mar 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Mar 24 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class events
occurred, as the general level of activity increased. Region 577
(S01W14) generated a C5/Sf flare at 1426 UTC. More recently, an
impulsive C7 limb flare appeared to have its origin from N15E90.
This soon to appear region is showing a hot corona in x-rays
and is also visible in H-alpha. Two new regions were assigned:
Region 580 (S07W07) and Region 581 (S03E81).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
low. Isolated C-class flares are likely, with a slight chance of an
M-class flare. Watch the northeast limb for the imminent arrival of
a new bright region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to mildly unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit attained high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through 27 March.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
- Class M 20/20/20
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 24 Mar 120
- Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 120/120/115
- 90 Day Mean 24 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 005/008
- Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 005/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 005/010-005/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/10/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/25
- Minor storm 05/05/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
