Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Mar 2003

SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels. Newly numbered
Region 321 (N05E78) produced the largest flare of the period, a C2.0
x-ray flare (correlated using SXI imagery) occurring at 24/0431Z.
This region is too close to the east limb to ascertain the overall
complexity of the magnetic structure or the regions spot
distribution. The remainder of the active regions were mostly
quiescent throughout the period. Region 320 (N05E07) was also
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels.
An isolated active period was observed at high latitudes between
24/0600 and 0900Z. The greater than 2 electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels for the first day of the
interval. Days two and three should see predominantly active
conditions with occasional periods of minor storm levels due to an
increase in the solar wind speed, resulting from a favorably
positioned recurrent coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar

• Class M 15/15/15
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 Mar 098
• Predicted 25 Mar-27 Mar 105/110/120
• 90 Day Mean 24 Mar 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar 013/024
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Mar 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar 015/015-020/020-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar-27 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/35/25
• Minor storm 10/20/15
• Major-severe storm 05/10/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/35/30
• Minor storm 15/25/20
• Major-severe storm 10/15/10