Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 June 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Jun 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There were two B class
flares in the past 24 hours. Region 1236 (N17W61) was unchanged but
produced a B3 event at 23/2233Z and a B4 event at 1549Z. Region
1240 (S19W12) and new Region 1241 (N19W08) appeared to be slowly
growing but were small and stable. Region 1239 (N17W44) was slowly
decaying.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Observations of
the solar wind from the ACE spacecraft indicated elevated speeds
between 590 – 630 km/s, consistent with a high speed stream from a
favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jun 096
Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 095/090/090
90 Day Mean 24 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 012/015-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/25/10
Minor storm 20/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01