Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Jun 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jun 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. Region 1023 (S23E01) continues to be the only
spotted region on the disk and was stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours. In particular, active periods were observed between
0300-0900Z and 1800-2100Z. Solar wind signatures showed a change to
slightly disturbed conditions beginning around 0300Z and lasting
through the period: the magnetic field intensity increased, the Bz
component of the solar wind showed occasional moderate fluctuations
with peak negative values around -10 nT early in the day, and around
-20 nT later in the day. In addition the spiral angle phi indicated
two possible sector boundary changes. During the last 12 hours of
the period solar wind velocity was gradually increasing. The
signatures late in the day were consistent with the onset of a
coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled with a chance for active periods
for the first day (25 June) as the current disturbance continues.
Activity levels are expected to decline to generally quiet levels
for the second and third days (26-27 June).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jun 067
Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 24 Jun 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 012/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/05/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/05/05
Minor storm 15/01/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01