Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Jun 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
June 25, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jun 24 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Flare activity
was limited to minor B-class x-ray events seen on the solar west
limb near S19. The source region for this activity is believed to
be from old Region 779 (S19 L=332). Region 780 (S08W30) underwent
continued decay and the region has become a simple BXO beta group.
No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The storm
conditions are due to a recurrent coronal hole. The associated
solar wind speeds have been elevated to near 500 km/sec throughout
most of the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels. There
may be a slight chance of isolated minor storming conditions though
25 June due to the geoeffective coronal hole. Unsettled levels with
isolated active conditions are expected on 26 June as the coronal
hole wanes. Quiet to unsettled levels should return by 27 June.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun

  • Class M 01/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 24 Jun 077
  • Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 080/080/080
  • 90 Day Mean 24 Jun 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 030/048
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 015/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 015/020-012/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/20
  • Minor storm 15/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 45/35/25
  • Minor storm 15/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.