Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Jun 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
June 24, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jun 24 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 635 (S11W53)
produced two C-class flares, a C1.4/Sf at 24/0559 UTC and a C1.7/Sf
at 24/0621 UTC. Region 635 maintained a beta-gamma-delta
configuration while growing slightly in size. No new regions were
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 635 is expected to produce C-class flares, and isolated
M-class flares are possible.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for all three days (25-27 June),
with periods of isolated active and minor storm conditions on day
three (27 June) as Earth comes under the influence of a high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun

  • Class M 45/45/40
  • Class X 10/10/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 24 Jun 108
  • Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 100/095/095
  • 90 Day Mean 24 Jun 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 002/005
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 003/007
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 004/012-005/012-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/30
  • Minor storm 15/15/20
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/30/35
  • Minor storm 20/25/25
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/10

SpaceRef staff editor.