Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Jun 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jun 24 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 635 (S11W53)
produced two C-class flares, a C1.4/Sf at 24/0559 UTC and a C1.7/Sf
at 24/0621 UTC. Region 635 maintained a beta-gamma-delta
configuration while growing slightly in size. No new regions were
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 635 is expected to produce C-class flares, and isolated
M-class flares are possible.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for all three days (25-27 June),
with periods of isolated active and minor storm conditions on day
three (27 June) as Earth comes under the influence of a high speed
solar wind stream from a coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun

• Class M 45/45/40
• Class X 10/10/05
• Proton 05/05/05
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 Jun 108
• Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 100/095/095
• 90 Day Mean 24 Jun 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 002/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 003/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 004/012-005/012-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/25/30
• Minor storm 15/15/20
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/30/35
• Minor storm 20/25/25
• Major-severe storm 05/05/10