Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Jun 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
June 24, 2003
Filed under , ,

SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several minor C-class subflares
occurred, mostly from Region 391 (N14W09). The largest was a C2/Sf
at 24/1024Z. This region emerged quite quickly through the early
part of this period, but has since stabilized. New Regions 392
(N07E69) and 393 (S15E72) were numbered today. No significant
activity or changes were observed in the remaining active regions.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Several of the active regions on the visible disk
have potential to produce occasional C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Active
to minor storm levels were predominant during local nighttime hours.
A high speed stream continues with solar wind speed ranging from 500
– 600 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods at
high latitudes.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun

  • Class M 25/25/25
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 24 Jun 115
  • Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 115/115/115
  • 90 Day Mean 24 Jun 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 015/020
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 025/025
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 015/015-012/015-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/30/30
  • Minor storm 15/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/35/35
  • Minor storm 20/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.