Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 July 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Isolated low-level B-class
flares were detected. Region 1089 (S23E06) continued to gradually
decay and simplify. New Region 1090 (N23E58), a single-spot A-type
group, was numbered late in the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1089.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to (briefly) unsettled
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels during days 1 – 2 (25 – 26
July). Activity is forecast to increase to unsettled to active
levels on day 3 (27 July) due to the expected arrival of a recurrent
coronal hole high-speed wind stream.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 085
Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 084/084/082
90 Day Mean 24 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 007/008-007/008-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/25
Minor storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/30
Minor storm 05/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05