Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Jul 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jul 24 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet 25 July and unsettled to active 26 July as a recurrent coronal hole becomes geoeffective. On 27 July conditions should range from quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 Jul 068
• Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 068/068/068
• 90 Day Mean 24 Jul 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 004/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 005/005-010/015-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/30/10
• Minor storm 05/15/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/35/20
• Minor storm 10/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/10/05