Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Jul 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
July 24, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jul 24 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 791 (N13E36)
remains the only numbered spot group on the solar disk. This region
has shown a slight growth in area and maintains a simple beta
magnetic configuration. Several CME’s were observed by LASCO
imagery over the past 24 hours. Analysis show these were backside
events and not Earth directed. One appears to be a halo CME first
observed by C2 imagery at 24/1354 UTC with an associated Type II
radio sweep.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 791.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 24 Jul 080
  • Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 085/085/090
  • 90 Day Mean 24 Jul 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 002/005
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 005/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 005/008-005/005-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/20
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.