Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Jan 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
January 24, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jan 24 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. All
three spotted active regions were responsible for the low level
B-class flare activity reported throughout the period. Region 727
(S09E38) was numbered today and is undergoing rapid growth in
penumbral coverage.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Continued growth in Region 727 may lead to
C-class flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 24 Jan 095
  • Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 095/095/095
  • 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 012/017
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 008/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 006/008-005/008-006/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/20/20
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.