Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Jan 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jan 24 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels today. All
three spotted active regions were responsible for the low level
B-class flare activity reported throughout the period. Region 727
(S09E38) was numbered today and is undergoing rapid growth in
penumbral coverage.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Continued growth in Region 727 may lead to
C-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 24 Jan 095
- Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 095/095/095
- 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 012/017
- Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 008/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 006/008-005/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/20/20
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
