Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Jan 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
January 24, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jan 24 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels today. A couple
very minor B-class x-ray flares became the extent of today’s
observed activity. All four active regions have continued to decay.
Regions 540 (S14W81), 542 (N10W61), and 543 (S16W60) are now H-type
alpha spot groups. Region 544 (N08W44) has lost all penumbra and
appears to be a B-type beta spot group. No new regions were
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels. There is a chance for an isolated low level
C-class flare from Region 544.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A brief period
of minor storming occurred at the middle latitudes between 24/0900
and 1200Z. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit
reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated
active conditions are possible with southward oscillations in the Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan

  • Class M 10/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 24 Jan 108
  • Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 105/100/100
  • 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 021/038
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 015/017
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 012/012-008/010-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/15/20
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/25/35
  • Minor storm 10/05/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.