Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Jan 2003

SDF Number 024 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 266
(S19E31) produced an M1.9/1n flare at 24/0327 UTC with an associated
Type II (600 km/s) and a Type IV radio sweep. LASCO imagery
indicates a CME which was not Earth directed. Region 266 continues
to grow in area size and spot count. Region 268 (N14W17) shows
signs of polarity mixing and has developed a beta delta magnetic
configuration. No activity was observed from this region.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 263, 266, and 268 have the potential
for M-class activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The effects
from a geo-effective coronal hole continued today and produced an
isolated active condition early in the period. Solar wind velocity
increased to near 800 km/s around 24/1400 UTC. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit exceeded event threshold
today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance of
isolated active conditions. The elevated solar wind velocity has
the potential of producing active periods on day one. Day two and
three are expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan

• Class M 30/30/30
  
• Class X 01/01/01
  
• Proton 01/01/01
  
• PCAF green
  

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 Jan 130
  
• Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 125/120/120
  
• 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 159
  

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 016/019
  
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 015/015
  
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 015/015-015/020-010/015
  

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan-27 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/15
  
• Minor storm 10/05/05
  
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01
  

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/30/25
  
• Minor storm 20/25/15
  
• Major-severe storm 10/05/01