Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 February 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Feb 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. An asymmetrical, halo CME
was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 24/0346Z. The
associated event was a filament eruption centered near N32E38 which
was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 24/0225Z. New
Region 1424 (N09E68) rotated on the East limb and was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class activity for the next three days (25 –
27 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. Solar wind speeds at the ACE
spacecraft ranged from approximately 400 – 460 km/s while the Bz
component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field did not vary much
beyond +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on days 1 and 2 (25 – 26 February). A
glancing blow from today’s CME is expected to become geoeffective
early on day 3 (27 February) causing unsettled to active periods
with isolated minor storm periods possible.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 109
Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 105/100/100
90 Day Mean 24 Feb 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 003/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 004/005-004/005-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/25
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/30
Minor storm 10/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/15