Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Feb 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Feb 24 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A new cycle sunspot group was numbered today as Region 1013 (N26E20).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. Solar wind speed during the past 24 hours has averaged around 440 km/s with interplanetary Bz between +6/-6 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet for the next three days (25-27 February).

III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 Feb 071
• Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 003/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01