Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Feb 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Feb 24 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on 25 February as the recurrent high
speed stream becomes geoeffective. Expect unsettled to active
conditions with minor storm periods possible at higher latitudes on
26 and 27 February.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 Feb 080
• Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 100

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 006/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 010/015-012/020-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/30
• Minor storm 15/20/20
• Major-severe storm 05/15/15