Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Feb 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Feb 24 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical ActivitySDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region
564(N15E00) continues to increase in size, reaching 470 millionths
today. The magnetic complexity of Region 564 remains relatively
unchanged. A slight increase in X-ray background levels was
observed starting around 1300Z. New Region 566(N05E21) was numbered
today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 564 has the potential for C-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 Feb 106
• Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 110/115/115
• 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 009/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 010/014
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 010/012-012/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/20/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/30/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01