Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 December 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Dec 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1386 (S18E64) produced
a C5/Sf at 24/0839Z. Region 1376 (rotating off the West Limb)
produced a long duration C4 flare at 24/1236Z. Both were
accompanied by CMEs which are not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class event for the next three days
(25-27 December)
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (25-27
December).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 143
Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 140/140/145
90 Day Mean 24 Dec 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 002/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 000/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/10/10