Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 December 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Dec 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant events
were observed during the last 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Observations from the ACE
spacecraft indicate a solar sector boundary crossing occurred around
23/2230Z. Density has shown a steady increase through the period
accompanied by increasing solar wind speeds from 240 to 340 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for day one (25 December). Quiet to unsettled
conditions with isolated active levels are expected for days two and
three (26-27 December). Increased activity is due to a recurrent
coronal hole high speed stream and possible effects from the CME
observed 23 December.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 079
Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 078/080/080
90 Day Mean 24 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 005/005-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/20
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01