Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 December 2009

By SpaceRef Editor
December 24, 2009
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Dec 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1038 (N13W81) was
a single spot Axx group today and continues to decay as it
approaches the west limb. No flares were observed during the past
24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind observations from the
ACE spacecraft show a possible weak, short lived, coronal hole
signature during the past 24 hours. Velocities steadily increased
after 24/0300Z from 350 km/s to 450 km/s as the density decreased.
Solar wind speed has since slowly decreased and returned to around
350 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (25-27
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 077
Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 074/072/072
90 Day Mean 24 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 001/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.