Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Dec 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Dec 24 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed at ACE is currently elevated around 620 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions possible on 25 December. On 26 December, conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled. On 27 December, unsettled to active conditions are expected.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 Dec 074
• Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 010/015
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 008/008-005/005-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec-27 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/25
• Minor storm 10/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/35
• Minor storm 15/10/20
• Major-severe storm 05/01/10