Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 August 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Aug 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. No flares were observed during the period. New Region 1101
(N12E79) was numbered today and is magnetically classified as an
alpha group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels for the next three days (25-27 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the
past 24 hours. The increased activity was associated with a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) moving into
geoeffective position. ACE solar wind readings indicated an enhanced
interplanetary field (IMF) intensity (peak 22 nT at 2241Z) combined
with intermittent periods of southward IMF Bz (maximum deflection
-14 nT at 0104Z) with an increase in velocities from 358 km/s to 709
km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (25 August),
at mostly unsettled levels on day two (26 August), and at quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (27 August) as the effects of the CH
HSS subside.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Aug 074
Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 074/075/075
90 Day Mean 24 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 013/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 015/015-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 10/05/01