Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 24 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 969 (S05E35) produced an impulsive C2/Sn event at 24/0754 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 969 could possibly produce an isolated C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods. The increase in activity is expected in response to a recurrent coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 Aug 072
• Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 24 Aug 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 010/015-010/015-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/15
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/20
• Minor storm 15/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05