Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Aug 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Aug 24 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 905 (S08E33) is the only sunspot group on the visible disk, and maintains a reversed polarity magnetic configuration. This region produced no flare activity this period; however, regular brightness fluctuations with low B-class x-ray enhancements were observed. No other activity of note occurred this period.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. There is a chance for a C-class flare from Region 905.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 25 and 26 August. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position on 27 August and produce occasional active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 24 Aug 078
• Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 24 Aug 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 004/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 005/005-005/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/30
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/35/40
• Minor storm 10/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05