Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Aug 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Aug 24 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A bright surge associated
with a B6 x-ray event was observed near S07 on the east limb at
24/1352Z. A CME was also observed in association with this event.
The likely source of this activity was old Region 655 (S09, L=177),
which is due to rotate into view tomorrow. All active regions on the
visible disk were stable or in decay. No other significant activity
was noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. The new region rotating into view on the southeast limb
may boost activity levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated active periods.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
- Class M 05/10/10
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 24 Aug 105
- Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 105/105/105
- 90 Day Mean 24 Aug 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 010/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 006/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 005/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/15/15
- Minor storm 01/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/20/20
- Minor storm 01/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01