Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 Aug 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
August 24, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Aug 24 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A bright surge associated
with a B6 x-ray event was observed near S07 on the east limb at
24/1352Z. A CME was also observed in association with this event.
The likely source of this activity was old Region 655 (S09, L=177),
which is due to rotate into view tomorrow. All active regions on the
visible disk were stable or in decay. No other significant activity
was noted.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. The new region rotating into view on the southeast limb
may boost activity levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated active periods.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three

III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug

  • Class M 05/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 24 Aug 105
  • Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 105/105/105
  • 90 Day Mean 24 Aug 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 010/007
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 006/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 005/010-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/15/15
  • Minor storm 01/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/20/20
  • Minor storm 01/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.