Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 24 April 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Apr 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed
during the forecast period. The visible disk remained spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next 3 days (25-27 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with the exception of a brief
period of active to minor storm conditions observed between
24/00-06Z. The activity was due to nighttime sub-storming.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (25 April). Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected on days 2 and 3 (26-27 April) with isolated
active periods possible on day 3 in response to the CME observed on
22 April.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Apr 074
Predicted 25 Apr-27 Apr 075/080/080
90 Day Mean 24 Apr 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr 007/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 005/005-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/40
Minor storm 05/05/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/35/45
Minor storm 10/15/35
Major-severe storm 01/01/05