Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 September 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1108 (S30W22) has
decreased in areal coverage and is an Hkx group with an alpha
magnetic configuration. 1109 (N22E54) showed little change in
either extent or areal coverage over the past 24 hours and is a Dso
group with a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
predominantly very low levels with a chance for C-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet for the past 24 hours. Data
from the ACE spacecraft indicated the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region in advance of a coronal hole high speed stream.
The total magnetic field increased to 13 nT at 23/1145Z, Bz remained
predominately northward and wind velocity steadily increased, ending
the period near 460 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for day one (24 September) and
decreasing to quiet to unsettled levels for day two (25 September)
due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet levels are
expected to predominate on day three (26 September).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 084
Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 23 Sep 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 010/010-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/05
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/20/05
Minor storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01