Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Sep 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Sep 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1026 (S36E34) has
shown little change while Region 1027 (N23E21) has grown in both
white light areal coverage and sunspot count. No flares were
observed in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event given
the two regions on the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next two days (24-25 September).
Unsettled conditions, with isolated active levels, are expected for
day three (26 September) as a recurrent coronal hole high speed
stream becomes geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 077
Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 077/077/077
90 Day Mean 23 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 002/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 005/005-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/30
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/35
Minor storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/0