Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Sep 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 119 (S14W59) continues
to slowly decay. Region 132 (N19W14) is emerging rapidly and has
more than tripled its sunspot area since yesterday. New Region 133
(S25E20) was numbered.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class activity is possible in Region 119 and, if
growth continues, Region 132.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Sep 154
Predicted 24 Sep-26 Sep 150/145/140
90 Day Mean 23 Sep 178

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep 004/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep 008/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01