Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1117 (N22E28) grew
in area and spots as well as increased in magnetic complexity. It
produced a B4 x-ray flare at 23/2011Z. The characteristics of Region
1115 (S29W36) did not change much, though it produced a B3 x-ray
flare at 26/1738Z. The leading edge of the CME from a disappearing
filament on 21 October was visible on both STEREO A and B HI1
images.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to be
predominately low with a chance for a C-class flare on days 1-3
(24-26 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active with a period of
minor to major storming at high latitudes between 23/1200-1500Z as
the result of coronal hole effects. Solar wind speeds were near or
above 650 km/s throughout most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be unsettled to active with isolated periods of minor
storming likely at all latitudes and a chance for major storming at
high latitudes for days 1-2 (24-25 October). Conditions are forecast
to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance for an isolated minor
storm on day 3 (26 October) at all latitudes. The elevated activity
is expected in part to a large, favorably positioned coronal hole as
well as a possible glancing blow on 25 October from the
aforementioned CME.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 084
Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 084/084/084
90 Day Mean 23 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 012/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 015/020-015/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/50
Minor storm 50/50/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/40
Minor storm 50/50/40
Major-severe storm 40/40/20