Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Oct 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
New Region 1029 (N14E14) was numbered. Region 1029 is a nine-spot
bi-polar sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. Solar wind
speed ranged from approximately 370 to 400 km/s, while Bz reached a
minimum of -9 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with isolated active
periods for the next two days (24 – 25 October) in response to a
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet conditions are
expected on day three (26 October).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 073
Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 23 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 010/010-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01