Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Oct 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Oct 23 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through most of 24 October. Active periods and isolated minor storm conditions are likely to occur as a coronal hole high speed stream rotates into a geoeffective position later in the day. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels with possible minor storm periods through the rest of the forecast period (25 and 26 October).

III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 23 Oct 067
• Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 003/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 010/015-015/020-020/025

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/30/35
• Minor storm 10/15/20
• Major-severe storm 01/05/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/35/40
• Minor storm 15/25/30
• Major-severe storm 10/15/20