Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Oct 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 23 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. New region 918 (S04W72) was numbered today. LASCO imagery shows a CME on the East limb, apparently originating from the backside. This event is not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind speed remains elevated due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Its current speed is approximately 500 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 23 Oct 076
• Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 012/013
• Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 004/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 004/005-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05