Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Oct 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2005 Oct 23 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. Region 817 (N04E21), containing a unipolar sunspot, was numbered today. Region 815 (N07W45) continues to decay, with no sunspots reported.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels, with isolated periods of active conditions, due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

• IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
• Observed 23 Oct 074
• Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 088

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 007/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 007/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 012/012-012/012-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/30/30
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/35/35
• Minor storm 20/20/20
• Major-severe storm 10/10/10