Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 November 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Nov 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare was a C2
at 23/1328Z from Region 1346 (S15W82). Region 1356 (N15E28) decayed
slightly in area in its intermediate spots. Three CMEs were
observed during the summary period. The first was associated with a
filament eruption in the northwestern quadrant first observed in
SDO/AIA 193 imagery at 22/1957Z. The second was first seen in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 23/0048Z which was possibly associated with
the same filament eruption. The third was first seen in SOHO/LASCO
C2 imagery at 23/0924Z which was associated with a high latitude
backside event. Further analysis of the 22/1957Z CME is ongoing to
determine the possibility of a glancing blow. The two subsequent
CMEs are not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for M-class activity. An isolated M-class flare is
possible from Region 1356.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (24 – 26
November).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 140
Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 145/145/145
90 Day Mean 23 Nov 139
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 04/04/04
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 00/00/00
B. High Latitudes
Active 14/14/14
Minor storm 12/12/12
Major-severe storm 06/06/06