Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Nov 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Nov 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. The disk is currently spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on days one and two (24-25 Nov). Based on
recurrence, an increase to unsettled conditions with a slight chance
for isolated active periods is expected on day three (26 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Nov 076
Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 23 Nov 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 001/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/20
Minor storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/25
Minor storm 01/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01