Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 23 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. LASCO imagery shows a CME on the Southwest limb at 23/1331Z. Plane of sky speed is approximately 550 km/s. This event appears to originate from the backside and is not expected to be geoeffective.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active with one period of minor storming. This activity is due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream rotating into a geoeffective position.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active from 24 – 26 November. There is the possibility of isolated periods of minor storming for the entire forecast period.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 23 Nov 077
• Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 23 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 012/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 012/015-010/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 40/40/30
• Minor storm 25/25/20
• Major-severe storm 10/10/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/40/35
• Minor storm 30/30/25
• Major-severe storm 20/20/15