Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Nov 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Nov 23 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Regions 822 (S07W63) and 824 (S14E32) have been quiescent. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak shock was observed by ACE at approximately 22/2100 UTC. Following the shock, the solar wind briefly reached a maximum speed of about 500 km/s and the IMF turned southward to about -5 nT.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 23 Nov 090
• Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 090/085/080
• 90 Day Mean 23 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 003/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 005/009
• Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01